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Trading Non Farm Payroll Using Price Action Forex Strategy

In this forex post, You will get to learn my exact ” unique ” forex trading strategy for the Non Farm Payroll using simple Price Actions.  ( 105 Pips Profits )

Just like other trading example I shown in my blog, I am also using Price Action to trade the Non Farm Payroll as well…

( A Major News NOT To Be Missed In Forex Trading ! )

In the first NFP forex strategy, I shared a trading technique which take advantage of some ” reversal ” hints in the market after the release of the actual NFP announcement..

It is a combination of using both ” Fundamental + Price Action ” strategy actually…

And it requires trader to ” get in fast and get out fast ” based on the Price Action in the market..

As I am already very familiar with watching the Price Action formed in the market…

I do not pre-set any Stop Loss or Take Profit level for the previous NFP strategy….BUT rather just rely on the current market condition to decide upon..

However……….some of the traders actually wrote in to me requesting that I shared another strategy in which they can ” Pre-Set  a Stop- Loss level ” …..

As well as ride the market for MORE PIPS each time … ( profits )

Wow !…..

Isn’t that BEST OF BOTH WORLD uh…?

Pre-set a Stop Loss at ” Strategic ” level…

AND…..ride the volatile market ( after news released ) for MORE PIPS…

Is there such a forex trading strategy for the NFP then ?

Good news !

There is and I have been trading using this strategy too…… IF I see a good & proven set-up for this technique for trading the monthly NFP…

If You’re also keen on this technique I personally formulated..

Then do continue reading …

————————————————————————————————————————

BUT first……some WARNING for You here first ( grin) :

———————————————————————————————————————–

For most people who have decided to venture into this forex trading business….it is very ” normal ” for him / her to try to trade the Non Farm Payroll…( at least for once )

Why so ?

Because everywhere You go….be it forex forums or just some forex books from the bookstore, You will definitely see some forex strategies talking about ” trading ” the Non Farm Payroll..

Well…..sad to say this though…

For majority of the people who traded this major news which happen on the first Friday of the month – They Would ” Lose Money ” 9  out of 10 times !

And the LOSSES can be really HUGE for those who purely treat this super volatile news announcement as an ” GAMBLING TOOL “…..

They do not practice money management at all….and simply dump in a BIG portions of their capital thinking that it is ” Easy ” to nail those pips after all…

( just because they have been MISLEADED to thinking that anyone can make A LOT of profits in a really Short period out of it ! )

That is 50% true though…

BUT…..this is a ” Double Edge Sword ” in fact..

You can Win a lot of money in a short period during a NFP announcement….

HOWEVER….You can also LOSE A LOT of money in a very short period too

If You have had some bad experience with trading the NFP….then am sure You would understand what I meant by the above sentence…..

( ….however if You have not encounter any bad experience yet…..then I hope You do not have to at all ! )

On the other hand….there are some people who also walked away happily making maybe say 10 – 20 pips from trading the NFP..

Yes….they did not lose after all..

BUT…..what about the STOP LOSS ?

Are they going to set it at 10 – 20 pips as well ?

OR….simply don’t care and DON”T set any Stop Loss at all BUT just hoping that ” everything ” would turn out fine ?

Hmmm….that is definitely NOT the way to trade such volatile news I dare say..

Any trader who just ignore this fact and continue to trade in the ” WRONG ” way would definitely find it very hard for them to survive trading the NFP announcement in the long run

And this is the reason why so many people find it very frustrating about… ( including some of my fellow readers who stumbled upon my forex blog )

That is why recently a lot of my readers wrote in to me asking about my own forex strategy for trading the Non Farm Payroll…

And You might have guessed it too..

Most of these readers are really ” frustrated ” with trading the NFP now…

Because they confessed that they are always trading on a very ” fearful ” mindset and they really want a more ” reliable and proven ” way to conquer this Non Farm Payroll…

Since they are feeling fearful and not confidence about trading the Non Farm Payroll..

Then I ask them this one question too :

“….Why don’t You guys DON”T trade the NFP at all ?

….Since You guys are not confident about Your trading strategy for this super volatile major news announcement ? “

Know what most of them answer me for this question ?

————————————————————————————————————————-

Most Of Their Answer ( carries this same meaning ) :

They know that Non Farm Payroll is very volatile…..which means the market would MOVE MASSIVELY…

When that happens…there are MASSIVE PIPS for them to grab too…..

That is why they are always ” tempted ” to trade this NFP.

————————————————————————————————————————

I have already wrote a post sharing my own forex trading strategy for the NFP in this blog to share with fellow readers previously..

But since I have been getting quite a number of emails ( about 50+ ) asking for more of my strategy that they can model to trade the NFP..

I decide to write another post sharing another strategy for the NFP this time here.

( Which show You how to pre-set a Stop Loss level….and grab MORE PIPS ! )

For each NFP, I would try to trade it definitely..

Unless I am attending to other important activities or events…then maybe would give it a miss..

( Or sometimes if the market condition or set-up is not ” good enough ” for me …I would step aside and don’t want to take unnecessary risk at all…)

For this following NFP strategy, the set-up is a rather ” common ” one which always present during the announcement..

And if You are also trading using Price Action strategies too…

Then nailing good pips from such volatile market condition from the NFP announcement would be ” NO Sweat ” for You then….

Here’s an overview of where I choose to ” Enter & Exit ” for a good 105 pips total ..

And using my so called ” Partial Lots Exit ” technique..

After analyzing the market using Price Actions strategy…

I ” Shorted / Sell ”  4 Lots at the Price 1.36890  ( which is the closing price of the bearish candle )

First 2 Lots exited after Take Profit Target of 45 Pips hit….

Last 2 Lots exited after Take Profit Target of 60 Pips hit..

A total of  105 Pips grabbed for this trade using this forex strategy.

( And the beauty of the set-up I look for would most of the time give me a very ” Good Risk/Reward ” ratio…..which is very important for long term success ! )

Read more to find out the details for this proven strategy below……as well as for the screen-shot of the earnings proof for this trade.

Alright….here we go now !

————————————————————————————————————————

PS : One more thing which I think You need to know here before we start though…

As I am already ” Very Confident ” with trading mainly using Price Action strategies all these while ( more than 4 years )…..therefore it is  very ” natural ” for me to scan for good set-ups on the chart while trading…

But for the sake of sharing this strategy as ” easy and simple ” to understand as possible for even absolute newbies reading my blog…

I will also include as much details as possible…

So if You already know this basic from reading other forex strategies on my blog….do bear with me for awhile ya….

In fact……..It would be good that You read every single word in this post so You get a ” FULL Picture ” of  this strategy….

As well as my Decision Making Process –  This is worth GOLD !  ( Money can’t buy my brain at least for now…* smile *)

So much for this opening….let’s go into the meat of this forex trading strategy for the NFP now..

To trade the monthly Non Farm Payroll with high accuracy…

It is critical that You at least know the 2 ” important ” numbers namely :

1)   Consensus

2)   Actual

Why so ?

Simply because these numbers would affect the market most of the time….

Especially when it is ” very bad or very good “…

Which is what I called the element of ” Surprise Factor “….

BUT….no matter what’s the actual numbers are…

It is VERY IMPORTANT that You place all the emphasis on the Price Action from the market though…

Confuse with this ?

Don’t worry……read on as I make everything very simple for You to understand below.

——————————————————————————————————————–

Here’s a screen shot of the actual & consensus numbers taken from Action Forex  ( click to enlarge ) :

———————————————————————————————————————

NFP Results

NFP Results

The Consensus is 15k..

But the Actual is -22k…

So technically…this would ” weaken ” the USD.

If You know don’t this yet….

When I am trading the Non-Farm Payroll…I only focus on the EUR/USD pair.

Reason being is that this pair gives me very reliable set-ups according to the fundamental outcome & market’s sentiment..

Am sure You would agree that if what You see on the market are ” most of the time RELIABLE “….

You would be WINNINGMost ” of the time too….right ? * grin *

OK…..since the USD would be weaken because of the worst actual NFP results ….( -22k instead of 10k )

Then my bias would be an ” Uptrend ” for the time being…

HOWEVER…..

Since this is a different strategy as compared to the previous one where I ” enter and exit fast “….

Of course there are other considerations You need too…..before committing into a position..

So HOW ?

Here are the considerations You must take :

1)  Is this ” Uptrend ” bias ( due to the worst than expected results ) against the MAJOR trend for this pair ?

2)  When is the ” best time ” to get into a trade so as to use minimum stop loss YET it could be placed at a STRATEGIC Price Location….?

Step number 2 is essential as this technique allows You to Pre-Determine a Stop- Loss level ..

Hence….abit of planning is definitely essential !

So upon considering these 2 elements…

We have a problem here though…

Firstly….the major trend has been a ” DOWNTREND ” previously for the EUR/USD….

….and it is against our NFP bias for an Uptrend !

( due actual NFP results & supposedly weaker USD )..

Here’s a screen shot to help You understand better :

From the above illustration…

You can also see that it has been a very Strong Down-Trend ” Prevailing ” for this Eur/Usd pair

So if we intend to Trade Against the Major Trend…..we need to be very skeptical about it though….

So how now ?

Better not trade against the Major trend…..and just give this NFP a miss ?

Well….like what I mentioned above ( and in other posts as well )….

It is good to trade ONLY if the ” set – up ” we want has shown on the market…

No point trading with a guessing mindset or just try our luck…….because most of the time it would only lead to fear, frustration and losing our capital…

Alright……at this point, things get abit ” trickier ” now…

But if You can also read the Price Action from the market like I do…

Then You would know what to look out for…..and how to trade the set-ups with ” confidence ” as well…

Let me show You the strategy on how I nailed 105 pips next..

Right after the announcement of the actual NFP results ( -22k ) at 1330 hour…

The Price actually begin to climb up initially for about 50 pips…..

BUT ” failed ” ultimately forming a Tower  Top ( common Candlesticks Formation ) and PLUNGED big time downwards forming a NEW LOW even…

This shows the SELLERS are somehow ” still dominating ” the market…

So based on this observation, it somehow makes our bias of an UP-Trend…….turning into a DOWN-TREND now…

The key here is to look out for a good and proven ” set-up ” to enter into a SELL trade…

And truly….after a while …this set-up indeed formed in the market and I used it for my ” SELL Entry “..

Here’s an illustration to help You understand more :

NFP strategy Set Up

NFP strategy Set Up

Now….referring to the above illustration..

You can also see that the Price started to ” Retrace / Pullback ” after forming a New Low for the session..

The price then ” retrace / pullback ” to a point and FAILED….

Subsequently forming an Inverted Pinbar – Which is a good hint that the Sellers are much Stronger than the Buyers at this stage….

( Also ….if You plot a FIBONACCI on the point it failed…it is also about 50% FIBO level …..which is a good zone to enter for Trend Continuation…)

Upon gathering all these ” hints ” from the market..

I then make my ” SELL Entry ” of 4 Lots for this NFP strategy…

Here’s an illustration for You to understand better :

NFP Entry Setup

NFP Entry Setup

Now that You know how I analyzed the Price Action in the market to decide on a ” SELL ” trade instead of a BUY…

With this information shared….it would not make my fellow readers happy yet though…

Why  so ?

Because like what I mentioned right at the start of this post..

They wrote in to me asking for a strategy in which they can ” pre-set a Stop – Loss level “…

…as well as ride for good pips during a Non Farm Payroll announcement without feelingUncertain or Stressful ” like what others normally go through….

So next coming up is of course to teach You guys how to decide on a ” strategic ” location to place the Stop Loss..

Wild guessing a stop loss value is definitely NOT GOOD for long term success..

This is due to the fact that a 25 pips stop loss might work for situation A….

BUT….in situation B….You might need 30 pips to survive and allow the trade to breathe freely….

Let me show You how below then..

Here’s the illustration to help You understand better once again :

NFP Strategy Stop Loss

NFP Strategy Stop Loss

A ” Strategic ” location to place the Stop Loss is a few pips away from the tip of the Inverted Pinbar…

This is so because the Price has FAILED previously at that level…..

Thus,  if we are right about the direction…..it is very ” less likely ” that the price would breach that level again…

With a 30 Pips Stop Loss..( in this case )

We are going to aim for 2 Profit Targets for this NFP Strategy…

First Profit Target would be 1.5 x our Stop Loss of 30 Pips  ( 45 Pips that is….)

Second Profit Target would be 2 x our Stop Loss of 30 Pips (  60 Pips that is…)

And since I ” Shorted 4 Lots ” ( 2 x 2 separate lots ) into the market …

Then each time I exit would be 2 Lots each…

So does this EXIT Strategy gives You a Good Risk/Reward ratio ?

Of course it does….

( In fact….for all of my forex strategies – Having a Good Risk/Reward ratio is one ” Critical ” element I place a lot of emphasis on and likewise for this NFP strategy )

Do the simple math here and You would agree too…

We are aiming for ” much more ” profits that the stop loss

So end of the day…..it is indeed giving us a Good Risk/Reward ratio…..simple !

But before You can secure those Pips into Your pocket…

You need to know ” HOW & WHEN ” to exit the FIRST position…

This is very important so as to avoid seeing the profits ( pips ) You successfully nailed previously being given back to the market ” IF ” it reversed…

So how do You do all these to avoid losing all those pips You accumulated then ?

Let me show You this simple yet proven ” EXIT ” strategy next…

I will try to make it simple to understand but no harm reading a few times more if You don’t get it the first time ya…* smile *

Here we go….

NFP Strategy First Profit Target

NFP Strategy First Profit Target

After about 23 mins of trading since I shorted 4 Lots at Price 1.36890..

The first Profit Target of 45 pips was hit at Price 1.36430..

So the first position with 2 Lots was ” automatically ” closed with the Pre-set Profit Taking Price..

Since the first half of the trading has been smooth sailing and we have profited 45 pips here…

We still have the 2nd position ( 2 Lots too ) still riding the market..

In order not to lose at all…

We must shift the Stop Loss for this 2nd position to BREAKEVEN now

This is to protect & truly add advantage to our position…

Even if the market was to reverse…..then at least We Won’t Lose !

Sounds good to You….? * smile *

( I love the feeling of trading ” stress FREE ” anytime…..LOL ! )

IMPORTANT POINTS TO NOTE HERE :

From the above illustration…..

You should see a ” Pinbar ” formed after we have profited the first 45 pips too..right ?

OK…..this is crucial to this exit strategy….so do understand what I have to share next..

IF…..the Profit Target has not been hit AND You see such PIN BAR in the market…

THEN it is ” advisable ” to manually closed the first position ( 45 pips for this case ) …

( And shift the stop loss of the 2nd position to Break-Even too…)

This step is MANDATORY because when there’s a Pinbar formed….most of the time it would retrace/ reverse..

So in order to ” secure more pips “…..we would rather PLAY SAFE abit….and just exit at the candle closed…

Got this so far ?

Good…..

————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Let’s proceed onto the exit strategy for the 2nd position next :

————————————————————————————————————————————————

For the 2nd position, I am aiming for 60 pips of profits like I mentioned earlier ..

This is 2 x  the Stop Loss value ( 30 pips )…..remember ?

And with the Stop Loss being shifted to BreakEven now..

It is basically a ” FREE RIDE ” now …

Cool eh ? * smile *

After trading for about nearly 2 hours…

The Take Profit target of 60 pips for the 2nd position was hit at Price 1.36290..

( Although the price did retrace to almost near our Breakeven point….but fortunately it did not hit that point after that so this trade still proceed smoothly to the TP price….)

Below is the illustration for You to understand more :

NFP Trading Strategy 2nd Profits

NFP Trading Strategy 2nd Profits

Using this NFP trading strategy..

A total of 105 Pips ( 45 + 60 ) have been profited trading over  a 2 hours period…

———————————————————————————————————————-

Here are the 2 earnings screen-shot with the Entry, Stop Loss & Take Profit to share :

1st Earning Screen-Shot ( 1st Position )

( click to enlarge )

NFP strategy Earnings 1

NFP strategy Earnings 1

2nd Earning Screen – Shot ( 2nd Position )

( click to enlarge )

NFP Strategy Earnings 2

NFP Strategy Earnings 2

Using this NFP strategy, a total of  105 pips  ( 45 + 60 ) have been nailed.

Which netted me about USd $2,100.00 of profits from this trade as You can also see from the earnings screen shots above..

Not too bad eh…?

( You can do it too….if You want….! * smile * )

As a matter of fact……

Many people are very keen on trading this super volatile major news announcement which released on the first Friday of the month..

Some people simply made 10 – 20 pips each time…

Some managed to nail 50 – 100 pips ( just like I do ) or even more…

However…..the fact is that only a small percentage survive…. ( out of  the many  who actually tried  …)

So if You’re here reading about this Non Farm Payroll strategy of mine because You truly want to succeed  ( or fight back what You lost previously )..

Then feel free to get familiar with this strategy based on Price Action + Fundamental ( numbers ) on a demo account on the next few NFPs..

This is without a doubt a very Proven Technique to trade the NFP ” Profitably ” and include all the good things most trader wants out of any strategy such as :

1)  You guys want to know ” how to analyse the market for BUY / Sell ” with high accuracy

2)  You guys want to know what  ” stop loss ” to use & WHERE to place it ” strategically “

3) You guys want to know what ” take profit ” to aim for yet maintain within the realistic range..

All of these are made possible because of the power of Price Action basically..

With given ” hints ” from the market ….You would be able to extract those ” hints ” and put to Your advantage…( once You know how ! )

So having read till this point…

What should You do now in order to trade with this kind of confidence and accuracy  then?

If You are still not proficient in reading Price Action directly from the market…

Learn It Of  Course ! *grin *

You would definitely benefit tremendously from Price Action too in the long term in almost ” ANY ” market conditions….not just trading the major news..

Alright…so much for this sharing on my 2nd trading strategy for the NFP…

I hope You have learn another proven strategy now….and also progressively expanding Your forex strategies basket too….

Remember to DEMO any strategy using virtual money first before You use them in any LIVE account alright ?

Trading with confidence override trading with ” Fear and Anxiety ” anytime…….agree ? * smile *

( especially when REAL money is involved…..and nobody likes losing definitely…)

Till then…

Happy trading !

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