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Posts Tagged ‘Forex Price Action’

Forex Trading Strategy For The Non Farm Payroll On The Eur/Usd

Forex Trading Strategy For NFP

Forex Trading Strategy For NFP

In this post… I shall share on a forex trading strategy which I used to trade the monthly Non-Farm Payroll.

This trading strategy has very high accuracy and it is based on both the fundamental ( actual NFP numbers )….

…..as well as using Price Actions to assess the direction to trade and getting into the best ” entry ” point.

Some traders would just avoid trading the monthly NFP totally as the volatility is just so ” Wild ” and extremely ” High “…

If You do not have a strategy to trade ‘ extremely high volatility ” market’s condition….then it is best to avoid NFP definitely..

What for trade with ” uncertainty ” right ?

A BIG No No….as that is more like trading based on emotions & feelings…

As for myself…

I am literally a big fan of  ” high volatility ” market condition as there are very GOOD Pips to be made - In A Very Short Time Frame !

As such….NFP is one major news announcement and the market would 99% move MASSIVELY..

If You are still not very confident in Your NFP trading ….

Then this NFP forex trading strategy that I am sharing below would most probably benefit You tremendously…( For the next NFP ! )

Before I get into the details of this trading strategy…

Let me provide You with an illustrations showing You on my ” entry & exit ” so You can understand better when I explain the strategy..

Here’s the screen-shot with my entry & exit to share :

NFP Forex Trading Strategy

NFP Forex Trading Strategy

For this trade, I nail about 57 Pips ( after spreads )…

Which profited a nice USD $ 2,850 ….( in just a short 5 mins ! )

Can this be called ” fast profits “…?

You tell me …! * smile *

Here’s screen-shot of the earnings to share :

NFP Forex Trading Strategy Earnings

NFP Forex Trading Strategy Earnings

A You see from the diagram above…..although the trend still continues to plunge downwards…

But I only grab about 57 pips ( minus spreads ) and simply exit after that…

Enter fast…..exit fast during such high volatile market condition is the key to secure the profits I must say..

Furthermore…I do not usually use any fix Stop-Loss but solely depends on the ” price action ” of the market to determine my trading decisions…

Which includes cutting losses and exit for a profits ( when it is necessary )…

There are quite a few ” Price action ” trading strategies I use to trade the NFP ..

I will see what ” hint ” the market has given me and I would make my trading decisions ( buy/sell ) in real time…

For this trade, here’s how I execute my decisions to ” Sell ” :

If You don’t know yet….

For any major news announcement…there would be a factor of  ” Surprise  element ” involve..

This is especially so when the actual results are ” much different from the consensus “….

As such….the market sentiment would largely be affected & impacted by such ” element of surprise ” too..

And caused a rather ” Huge & Predictable ” market movement for us to grab some nice Pips from…

For this NFP….the actual results are ” So Much Better ” than the Consensus..

Hence…the USD would be much stronger …( at least for the first hour after the announcement )

This explains why I choose to ” SELL / SHORT ” this Eur/Usd.

Furthermore….the market has even gave me a better ” hint ” with the presents of that Long Upper Wick ….( after a very bullish move )

This definitely re-inforce my ” Anticipation ” of the SELL direction for this NFP trade..

And is my trading strategy for NFP realiable and accurate ?

Well….the profits of Usd $2,850 definitely can prove so right….* smile *

One thing for sure…..if You’re using any of the so called ” textbook technical indicators ” to trade major news such as the NFP..

Then it might be accurate at all & rather lagging in fact….. because everything happens just so fast…

One minute…..it could be UP by 100 Pips..

Next minute….it could retrace or plunge by another 150 Pips…

So learning forex trading strategy which is more ” current ” from the market itself such as the Price Action is definitely a better ( more profitable ) choice while trading the EXTREMELY Volatile NFP……

Agree ?

Alright…so much for this trading strategy to trade the Non-Farm Payroll…

I hope You have learnt something valuable from this post and would be more confident in trading the next NFP to come…

And of course…..grab Yourself so nice ” Quick Profits ” too…..!

Ophz…..never be greedy in any trading especially in a highly volatile market such as forex.

Don’t tell people I mentioned the words ” Quick Profits “…….ya !

Joking here…..* smile *

Feel free to read about my Forex Trading blog for other forex tips and trading strategies ..

Time for me to pen off for now…and go to bed !

One Forex Trading Strategy Is All You Need To Make Consistent Profits Every Month…Here’s Why

Just One Forex Trading Strategy

Just One Forex Trading Strategy

Yes…….You’re hearing it right…

Not 3……not even 2…….but JUST ” One “ Forex Trading Strategy is all You need to make consistent profits every month trading forex.

Before I go into the main details on this….

Let me share with You a little interesting ” story “ that got me decide to write on this forex trading strategy…* smile *

Few weeks back, I actually attended a forex seminar ( free preview one in Singapore ) to support the speaker whom is one of my friend in the forex community.

On that eventful day…….sitting next to me was a lady and I must comment that she’s a rather ” friendly ” one…

During the 15 minutes break, she actually initiated and start chatting with me…( my wife was NOT with me for that seminar.*evil grin* )

She asked quite a few questions as she is still a newbie to forex and very curious…..*smile*

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The question that got me decide to share in this blog is this :

” Hey….since You are already trading full time now….

And I know there are tonnes of different strategies out there but……IF

I just need ONE forex trading strategy to profit consistently every month..

What should it be ? …

My Answer for this lady is… :

Of  Course !

In fact….You really don’t need too many forex trading strategies for your tading.

Sometimes too many choices can put You in an indecisive situation and simple don’t know which one to use..

All You need inYour basket is perhaps 1 - 3 proven trading strategies that have been proven to work and the success rate is at least 60%  ( regardless of market conditions..)

So to name one such forex trading strategy to share ….

I would say it is the ” breakout trading “

Reason being is that….it is really simple to anticipate a breakout ( normally it is after a tight range ) and You do not even need any complicated technical indicators for Your entry.

Combined with a good Reward/Risk ratio..

You would definitely be able to confidently capture those massive pips when the breakout happens…

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Having said that…..the 15 minutes break is roughly over…

So we just exchanged emails and correspond from there ( ONLY forex related topics ! nothing else….in case my wife reading about this! LOL)

…not to mention….I also told her about my forex trading empire blog too….* smile *

OK…..so much for that little story…

Let’s go into the main topic for this post….( I really want to avoid writing long winded forex article actually….You like it that way too right ? )

Having many ( 20 or more ? ) forex trading strategies in your arsenal might sound good….or sometimes impressive to some..

However….when the choices are just too many….it can backfire and causing You some unnecessary ” dilemma” and affect Your trading.

There is a period when I am personally experiencing this same ” indecisive-ness” too because I am one whom just love to learn and test out any new forex trading strategies I can lay my hands on..

The power of ” ONE ” is indeed powerful…

And that applies to forex trading as well…

Sticking to just ” ONE ” forex trading strategy that works and combined with good money management + reward/risk ratio can really increase Your trading efficiency ( as well as monthly PROFITS too ! )

One such strategy I always swear by ( even until now ) is trading the ” Breakout “..

And the beauty of trading a ” breakout ” is that You do not need any indicators or much analysis to profit from it

Oh ya……aiming for 100+ pips  profit or more trading a breakout is not only realistic….but also simple !

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Here’s why ( 3 Steps proven methods ) :

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1) You just need to know the certain condition which would trigger a breakout…

2) You need to know ” when ” to enter to capture those massive movements when it happens…

3) You need to know ” How ” to protect Your capital if it is just a FAKE breakout..

Follow on as I show You ( with illustrations ) how to properly execute these 3 proven steps to profit BIG TIME from breakout trading…

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** 1st Step : You just need to know the certain condition which would trigger a breakout…

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If You don’t know yet….

When the market is in a ” TIGHT Sideway Range ” for a while …You can then be ready to expect a breakout coming…

( the longer the duration of this range….the more EXPLOSIVE the breakout would be!)

Here’s an illustration on ” TIGHT Sideway Range of GBP/USD ” to help You understand better :

( click picture to enlarge if you want…)

Breakout Forex Trading Strategy

Breakout Forex Trading Strategy

The ” Tighter ” the sideway range is……

The more EXPLOSIVE the Breakout would be….

I am trading on the 1 Hour time-frame and the sideway range You see in the illustration has been stretching for more than 24 hours..

When the Price broke out from the tight range…..it climbs for about 250 Pips in just hours…

( See….! I told You it is simple to grab 100+ Pips or more trading the breakout ….*grin*)

Ok…..now You know the ” Certain Set-up” You need in order to anticipate a Breakout…

I shall show You ” When “ to enter into the market to capture those MASSIVE Pips when it happens…

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** 2nd Step : You need to know ” when ” to enter to capture those massive movements when it happens…

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Normally You would just follow in the direction of  the ” Previous ” trend…..

That’s because during a strong trend….the market would normally ” take a break ” or so called ” Consolidated In A TIGHT Range “…

And that’s where You get in !

Here’s an illustration to show You ” When “ to get in the simple way :

Forex Breakout Trading Strategy

Forex Breakout Trading Strategy

What You need to do is manually enter into the trend when the price broke out…

OR….

You can also use set a ” Pending Buy Stop ” ( maybe 15 pips interval ) order just above the recent Highest Resistance..

( If You do not want to sit glue to the PC to wait the market every minute that is…..)

In order to trade a Breakout ” Profitably ” each time…

You need to understand one important thing here…

And that is the Reward/Risk ratio of the trade You wish to enter..

A recommended Reward/Risk ratio I personally use is 2 : 1….

Which means :

Every time I win….I would win 2x !

And when I am wrong and lose….I only lose half ( plus spreads )

A Reward/Risk ratio of 2 : 1 is highly realistic simply because this is a ” Breakout ” set-up we are talking about here..

Where the price movements are truly MASSIVE when it happens…!

( Don’t believe…..? Open up You chart later and scan for those ” LONG Period of Tight Ranging Market “ to know what I mean here….)

Trading ” Breakout ” is truly simple and the reward are very good most of the time…

However…..

There would be times when the market behave in a uncertain way and resulted in a FAKE breakout

So what does that means ? FAKE..?

It means You would probably presume the market is breaking in ” that FAKE ” direction and so You also jump in…

Only to see the  market reverse and hit Your Stop - Loss order…  ( I hope You already have it set in the first place though! )

Then how to counter that ?

It’s coming up next…..continue reading…

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** 3nd (Final) Step : You need to know ” How ” to protect Your capital if it is just a FAKE Breakout..

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To be caught in a FAKE  breakout while using this forex breakout trading strategy  is not uncommon..

After all…the market is filled with ” meaningless ” and ” misleading ” signs…..most of the time !

And it is up to traders ( like You and Me ) to learn how to pick the more reliable ones and filter the bad ones..

Using a good Reward/Risk ratio of at least 2 : 1 is one good way to counter this problem and still make sure You would end up in Profits when the TRUE Breakout happens…

( Which is explained in 2nd Step….scroll up and read again if You need to ! )

That’s because if You’re made to believe that the breakout has happened and jump into it…..but at least You are using a STOP-LOSS to ” Protect” Your capital here…

A Stop-Loss place at the ” appropriate ” position is very essential here….hope You’re seeing it too.

Since it is in a TIGHT Range…..the Stop-Loss needed also would be very tight too….which is good.

If the first trend happens to be a FAKE Breakout…and get Your Stop-Loss hit..

Then when the true trend happens…..You would jump in with the good reward/risk ratio ..

Simply by following this direct and proven rule…You would be assure that ending up with profits end of month is very easy and achievable!

No doubt about it !

Another way to ” filter ” off FAKE Breakout is to only believe those that happen during the FIRST 2 hours of active trading period

Meaning for the US Market….it is from 12pm - 2 pm ( GMT )

And for the London Market….it is from 7 - 9 am ( GMT )

In the example above…..the trade is from the GBP/USD…

And the Breakout of the ” LONG ” candle happens at 1PM ( GMT ) ….which is the  active trading period of the US market…

So it is a sure sign that it can be trusted….

Nothing beats pulling out your chart and scanning for the ” Tight Sideway Range ” which I have been talking about really…

Get a ” Feel ” is very important especially when price movements are involve…

But one thing for sure….

Trading ” Breakout ” is truly Profitable because  of :

1) Good Risk/Reward ratio achievable…

2) Massive Movements and Lots Of Pips For You To GRAB ! * Smile *

Imagine You’re doing the same thing for 3 -4 currencies OR MORE….

I don’t need to tell You about the amount of PIps YOU can grab …..right ..

In fact….there’s a period of time when I ONLY trade the ” Breakout ” …

And not only do I have more time to do other things….( because I just need to scan the market every hour or so…..5 minutes at most  using my smart phone * smile )

But also….the amount of profits I got every month from  such forex trading strategy literally grow my account so rapidly too..

Yes….I can’t help but to emphasize again…

Just this ” ONE ” forex trading strategy is enough to make You smile month after month …….trading forex online.. * smile *

I knew it’s possible….because I have been there and DONE THAT !

If You’re ” still “ scalping the market for small profits of  15 - 20 Pips…

And somehow have to ” Glue ” to the screen watching every tick as the price moves…

Then maybe after reading this article about my Breakout forex trading strategy

You might consider try trading the ” Breakout ” to see what I mean by :

” ….It is truly profitable and need very little time from YOU - Proven ! ”

…..Thanks for reading this far…

I hate writing LONG WINDED post too….trust me on that ! LOL…

To Your Forex Success,

- Aaron ( your trading friend )


Why Forex Price Action ? Why Such Forex Trading Strategies Are More Powerful & Accurate ?

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Warning: Before you proceed to read the entire post below…it is essential for you to discard everything you know about using technical analysis to trade the forex market ( …Especially if YOU’ve been relying HEAVILY on technical indicators! )

——————————————————————————————————

If you’re also wondering what’s Forex Price Action actually….& why such Forex Trading Strategies are more Powerful & Accurate…

Then this post is definitely a must read for you !

Basically Forex Price Action is a trading strategy which analyze the ” Behaviour of the Price & the Patterns that have formed ” in the forex market.

We then use such ” Behaviour & Patterns” to gauge what the market’s sentiment is currently and most importantly - What’s the market response most likely be next…

If you don’t know yet…..do you know that using PRICE ACTION to analyse the forex market is the closest ” Hints” you can siphon from the market about what it’s telling you.

To put it simply…it is the most powerful way to really predict :

1) Where the price would be heading ( whether Up, Down or Sideway….)

2) And more critically - By using Forex Price Action, it would enable anyone to enter into a trend very EARLY at the start !

Here’s what I mean :

( Without using any Technical Indicator at all..)

Forex Price Action

Forex Price Action

Now ask yourself this….how many times when you rely HEAVILY on textbook indicators be it  Moving Averages or MACD or Stochastic or Bill Williams or Bollinger Bands or RSI…..etc..

You actually managed to detect a trend really ” EARLY ” at the start of it…

Most of the time, when these technical indicators gave us the signal to BUY or SELL….the trend would have moved halfway from the starting point..

And when we entered happily thinking that this time round, we would be walking away for a nice profits based on the signals from these technical indicators..

It actually turn out very disappointed for us because when it’s time to exit….the indicator is slow in telling you too!

And what happen next ?

2 things…..

Either you read the PRICE ACTION & The Patterns it formed and exit when you detect a Possibility of  Price Reversal…

….Or you simply allow the trend to reverse and seeing those profits given back to the market painfully!

Worst, when market reverse and eating away the previous profits you had and then ultimately hit your Stop-LOSS….

Your morale literally dampen to the max …..and you sort of think to yourself…..why.? why? why?

You’re frustrated….confused and at the same time have the urge to fight back using even bigger lots ….

What does this leads to ?

A gambling mindset - A fatal trap to most newbies or even experience traders still trying to make consistent profits every month.

I truly understand this vicious cycle because I for once also rely heavily on textbook indicators during the early phase of my forex trading journey.

I would say that it is inevitable that all newbies who came into this forex trading game would be expose to such technical indicators for sure…

Because it is what ALL books & training programs are teaching !

Now….don’t get me wrong here though.

Technical indicators do work for some and still continue to help them rake in consistent Pips & Profits …month after month.

However….these are the traders who truly understand the ” Strengths & Limitations” of the technical indicators they are using..

And very importantly….they are using the ” Right Settings ” too.

I personally have tested more than 30+ combinations using almost all of the technical indicators we can find on most trading platform..

There are some trades which are successful…..some are really bad.

Such as …when the market is RANGING…..( and if you’re using Moving Averages ), there would be very messy & confusing WHIPSAWS.

When I finally understand that all these technical indicators actually derive their formula from the market’s PAST HISTORY - The Price..

I begin my journey on studying on the Price …..particularly the ” Forex Price Action & Patterns” it form for my Buy & Sell decision.

This is where my trading skills took to a whole new height - Which literally enable me to enter a trading position much more accurately & also nail MORE PIPS ( because I can now enter early during the trend !)

The main reason why the Price in a Forex market moves in a particular direction is due to 2 driving forces namely :

1) Fear  ( Fearful Selling ? Downtrend….)

2) Greed  ( Greedy Buying ? Uptrend..)

3) How about Unsure..?  Then it would be Sideway or so called a Ranging Market

Studying of Forex Price Action can in fact also be considered a relatively close study of the market responses..

The amazing thing about using Price Action is that it is FASTER than any derivative or technical indicator..

It is NOT lagging or confusing like many of the popular textbook indicators…

And the ONLY TRUTH in the Forex Market is the CURRENT PRICE !

By trading purely based on Forex Price Action, I can ignore news, opinions and any personal biases..

And it can also be ” Confidently” use by any trader ( including yourself ) to predict the near future response of the market with a high level of Accuracy…..and Much Earlier.

Thus allowing You to enter at the ” Start Of A Trend ” Earlier…..( Just like in the example I shown above about the ” V ” Reversal…)

As well as ” Exit ” with more valuable Pips & Profits for any trade you took…..instead of waiting for the technical indicator to give you signal which are almost too late normally.

Do you know why is that so …..?

That’s because these technical indicators rely on the Price Action ( mainly the Past History Price ) to give You the Buy or Sell signal.

Which explains why they are ALWAYS lagging behind & slower then the actual Price ……

So……….instead of using technical indicators to give me the Buy/Sell signal….

I am using them in an OPPOSITE way….( Opposite from 95% of the frustrated traders  )

With that I mean - I am giving Priority to The Price Action & The Patterns formed on the forex market..

Whereas most of the traders would give priority to the lagging technical indicators instead..

Moreover…. I ONLY use simple indicator ( 1 or 2 at most ) to help me confirm my decision based on the Price Action.

And not clustering my chart with 2 or 3 moving averages plus bollinger band plus another 2 oscillators - Which only make the decision making more complicating & clouding our ability to spot good trading opportunities!

PS: Remember this…..when You do things the same way as the majority….you would get the same results. And that applies to 95% of the frustrated traders who are struggling to make consistent profits every month !

What you think after reading what I have to share about Forex Price Action here ?

Is it time You explore and learn more about Forex Price Action too and bring your trading skill to a whole new ” More Powerful” level ?

Or even better….

Combined just a few ” Reliable” technical indicators which you’re already using WITH Price Action Forex Trading Strategy….

And see the amazing & shocking results ( More Profits ) for yourself in the days to come perhaps ! * smile *

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Recommended Read :

1)  Powerful Forex Price Action ” Reversal ” Strategy From Forex Confidant

2)  Proven Price Action ” Trend ” Strategy From Forex Supremacy

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